Stock Market Nerd Macro – March 30, 2024
Inflation Data:
- The GDP Price Index for Q4 came in at 1.7%. This compares to 1.6% expected and 3.3% last quarter.
- Michigan 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations for March were both a tick cooler than expected and each ticked down 10 bps M/M.
- Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) M/M for February rose 0.3% as expected. This compares to 0.5% last month.
- Core PCE Y/Y for February rose 2.8% as expected. This compares to 2.9% last month.
- PCE M/M for February was 0.3% vs. 0.4% expected. This compares to 0.4% last month.
On Friday, Powell said the PCE inflation data was “more along the lines of what he’s looking for” vs. January inflation data and February’s CPI and PPI.
Consumption/Employment Data:
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence for March came in at 104.7. This compares to 106.9 expected and 104.8 last month.
- Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1,819,000. This is roughly in line and compares to 1,795,000 last month.
- Initial Jobless Claims were 210,000. This compares to 212,000 expected and 212,000 last report.
- Michigan Consumer Confidence and Sentiment for March were both better than expected and each improved M/M.
Output Data:
- Durable Goods Orders M/M for February rose 1.4%. This compares to 1.2% expected and -6.9% growth last month.
- The latest GDP reading for Q4 came in at 3.4%. This compares to 3.2% expected and 4.9% last quarter.
- The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 41.4 for March. This compares to 45.9 expected and 44.0 last month.
