Stock Market Nerd Macro – March 16, 2024
Inflation Data:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% M/M for February as expected. This compares to 0.3% last month.
- Core CPI rose 0.4% M/M for February vs. 0.3% expected. This compares to 0.4% last month.
- CPI Y/Y rose by 3.2% Y/Y in February vs. 3.1% expected. This compares to 3.1% last month.
- Producer Price Index M/M for February rose 0.6% vs. 0.3% expected. This compares to 0.3% last month. This was driven by volatile food and energy prices as core PPI (ex-food & energy) rose by 0.3% M/M for February vs. 0.2% expected.
- The export price index M/M for February was 0.8% vs. 0.2% expected.
- The Import Price Index M/M for February was 0.3% as expected. This compares to 0.8% last month.
- Michigan 1-year inflation expectations fell from 3.1% to 3.0% while 5-year expectations stayed at 2.9%.
Inflation data continues to moderately heat up a bit. I would need to see this persist for a few more months to change my current opinion on multiple rate cuts and an easier Fed coming this year. Commercial Real Estate (CRE) needs it and so do regional banks. As supply chain normalization kicks in and the boost to GDP wears off, I see economic growth slowing, employment worsening, dovish policy coming and either a soft landing or a mild recession happening this year. I will keep deploying cash and will keep the cash position low.
Employment & Consumption Data:
- Continuing Jobless claims were 1.811 million vs. 1.9 million expected and 1.794 million last report.
- Retail Sales M/M for February rose by 0.6% vs. 0.8% expected. This compares to -1.1% last month.
Output Data:
- New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for March came in at -20.9 vs. -7 expected. This compares to -2.4 last month.
- Michigan Consumer Expectations and Sentiment for March both slightly missed estimates.
