Stock Market Nerd Macro – January 5, 2024
Output Data
- The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for December came in at 47.9. This compares to 48.2 expected and 49.4 last month.
- The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) PMI came in at 47.4. This compares to 47.1 expected and 46.7 last month.
- The ISM Manufacturing Prices reading for December came in at 45.2. This compares to 47.5 expected and 49.9 last month.
- S&P Global Composite PMI for December came in at 50.9. This compares to 51 expected and 50.7 last month.
- Services PMI for December came in at 51.4. This compares to 51.3 expected and 50.8 last month.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for December came in at 50.6. This compares to 52.6 expected and 52.7 last month.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices for December came in at 57.4. This compares to 57.3 expected and 58.3 last month.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment for December came in at 43.3. This compares to 51.0 expected and 50.7 last month.
Employment/Consumer Data
- JOLTs Job Openings for November were 8.79 million. This compares to 8.85 million expected and 8.85 million last month.
- Non-farm payrolls for December came in at 216,000. This compares to 170,000 expected and 173,000 last month. This will likely be revised lower like most 2023 readings were. There is also a lot of strength in part-time and multiple-job-holder data with more weakness in full-time employment.
- The labor force participation rate came in at 62.5%. This compares to 62.8% expected and 62.8% last month.
- Unemployment came in at 3.7%. This compares to 3.8% expected and 3.7% last month.
Inflation & Monetary Policy Data
- The Fed minutes were dovish, but not as dovish as Powell was in his last presser. It would be difficult to be more dovish than that at this economic stage.
- ADP Nonfarm Employment for December was 164,000. This compares to 115,000 expected and 101,000 last month.
- Initial Jobless Claims came in at 202,000. This compares to 216,000 expected and 220,000 last month.
Average Hourly Earnings M/M for December rose 0.4%. This compares to 0.3% expected and 0.4% latest month.
Source: Brad Freeman proprietary research
