Stock Market Nerd Macro – December 1, 2023

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Stock Market Nerd Macro – December 1, 2023

The Fed Beige book was released this week. The anecdotes were unsurprising and continue to support the possibility of a rare, rare soft landing (along with cooling inflation). Most districts reported slowing growth, strong consumer credit with a modest uptick in delinquencies and improving labor supply dynamics with cooling wage inflation. This is based on Q4 observations while the 5%+ GDP reading we recently got was for Q3.

Inflation Data

  • Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index for October was 3% Y/Y as expected and vs. 3.4% last month.
  • PCE Index for October was 0% M/M vs. 0.1% expected and 0.4% last month.
  • Core PCE Index for October Y/Y was 3.5% as expected and vs. 3.7% last month.
  • Core PCE Index for October M/M was 0.2% as expected and vs. 0.3% last month.
  • 2 and 5 year note auctions closed at significantly lower rates than previous auctions as yields continued to fall.
  • ISM Manufacturing Prices for November came in at 49.9 vs. 46.2 expected and 45.1 last month.

Employment and Consumer Data

  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence for November was 102 vs. 101 expected and 99.1 last month.
  • Initial Jobless Claims were in line with expectations.
  • Personal Spending M/M for October rose 0.2% as expected and 0.7% last month.

Output Data

  • Q3 GDP is now coming in at 5.2% vs. 4.9% expected and 2.1% last quarter.
  • Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for November was 55.8 vs. 45.4 expected and 44 last month.
  • Manufacturing PMI was 49.4 as expected and vs. 50 last month.
  • Institute of Supply Management (ISM) PMI for November was 46.7 vs. 47.6 expected and 46.7 last month.
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