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James Reveals His Dividend Stock Secret
Dividend stocks may return to the stage as interest rates drop and investors prefer safety. Here are some ideas. By James Early, BBAE CIOI have a secret.Not kind of secret. I used to be a dividend guy. I still am, in fact, but I ran Motley Fool Income Investor, which I believe was the largest dividend newsletter in the world for the 10 years I ran it. In addition to that, and being The Motley Fool’s Director of Research & Analysis, I also helped build their London stock-picking business, and picked dividend stocks in that market for 5 years, too. All in, my products beat the market, which is something I should probably trumpet louder than I do. Maybe that’s my real secret. dividend stocks have been horrible so far this year: The S&P 500 is upA lot of younger investors who came of investing age during the 13-year bull market we exited last year have not only only known a bull market, but they’ve known a type of bull market whose laws of physics differ from most thanks to ultra-low interest rates that “magically” make cash flows expected far into the future more valuable than they would be with normal interest rates. (If you’re new to investing, this means early stage biotechs and early stage tech companies and any other companies that traditionally lose money for years before turning a profit look disproportionately good on a valuation model.)Here’s a table I showed in an earlier Forbes article, show how much less (or more) $1 is worth years into the future, depending on the interest rate:Anyway, it’s been a bad year for dividend stocks; we’ve seen a snap-back rally in many of the sexy industries that got hammered inMy message to young investors who believe the secret to wealth is pouncing on the next hot trend: Sure it worked for the past dozen years, which probably felt like an eternity. But it’s not how the market has traditionally worked, and the number of cases where “this time is different” lasted in perpetuity in the market round to zero.At some point, we’ll be back to basics (cash flows, actual profit). At some point interest rates will start to fall (again, if you’re a newbie, welcome – and know that rising rates tend to crimp stock prices, at least eventually, and falling rates tend to do the opposite). And with bonds and money market funds paying less, financially secure dividend stocks will likely have their day in the sun.As I mentioned in the , the Financial Times shared data showing that $100 invested in 1971 grew to $4,744 in an equal-weight S&P 500 index through 2/2021 (Data from Ned Davis Research and Hartford Funds). In dividend stocks writ large, it grew to $8,These are pretty good long-term statistics that you may want on your side. I mention a few stocks in the Benzinga piece, but I’d also like to open the mic to my beloved BBAE audience here: If you have questions about dividend stocks, bring ‘em on. I’m happy to discuss. Happy investing,James p.s. If you’re looking for the very coolest broker to buy your dividend stocks – or any other stocks, but for the moment let’s fixate on dividends – make that broker BBAE.
Read More >Traditional IPO, Direct Listing, and SPAC IPO: A Comprehensive Comparison
Traditional IPO, Direct Listing, and SPAC IPO: A Comprehensive ComparisonWhen a company decides to go public, it has several options to choose from. In this article, we will explore three popular methods: traditional initial public offering (IPO), direct listing, and special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO. We will discuss each method's process, its pros and cons, and provide examples of companies that have used these methods to go public.A traditional IPO is the most common method for a company to go public. In this process, the company works with investment banks as underwriters, who help the company determine the appropriate price for its shares and manage the sale of those shares to institutional and retail investors. Often, the underwriters assume price risk by buying the shares the company wishes to float before the IPO, and then reselling them.- Underwriters provide financial guidance and expertise.- Companies can raise significant capital.- IPOs create a public market for shares, allowing future fundraising and liquidity for shareholders.- Lengthy and expensive process (investment banks may charge a fee in the range of 7% of proceeds)- Underpricing risk, potentially leaving money on the table.- Facebook (2012)- Uber (2019)In a direct listing, also known as a direct public offering (DPO), a company goes public without the aid of underwriters. Instead of issuing new shares to raise capital, existing shareholders sell their shares directly on the stock exchange – i.e., the company itself does not raise capital. - Lower costs compared to traditional IPOs.- Greater transparency in the price discovery process.- No capital raised for the company (though with the listing established, it may opt to raise capital via a secondary offering in the future) - Potentially lower visibility and reduced investor demand.- No underwriters to provide financial guidance and support.- Spotify (2018)- Slack (2019)A special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) is a shell company created solely to raise capital through an IPO to acquire a private company. The private company then becomes publicly traded as a result of the acquisition.- Faster and potentially less expensive process for target companies.- Target companies can negotiate valuation and deal terms with the SPAC.- SPACs can provide industry expertise and connections.- Potential conflicts of interest between SPAC sponsors and target company shareholders.- Regulatory scrutiny and potential legal risks.- SPAC sponsors typically take 20% of the company, which many equate to a large “fee.”- DraftKings (2020, via Diamond Eagle Acquisition Corp.)- Virgin Galactic (2019, via Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings)
Read More >BBAE Blueprint #3: MyMarket - Your Gateway to Data-Driven Investing, Tailored to You
.png")Welcome back to the BBAE Blueprint series, where we aim to guide you through our platform's features and help you navigate your investment journey with confidence. In this week's blog post, we'll focus on the BBAE MyMarket product, available within the BBAE Pro mobile app, highlighting its key features and demonstrating how it equips you with the tools needed to make data-driven investment decisions, all while staying true to our BBAE ethos: "Investing reimagined, guidance and control, tailored to you."MyMarket is designed for hands-on investors who prefer to take full control of their investment journey and make their own decisions. It offers a comprehensive suite of tools and resources that empower you to make well-informed decisions based on solid data. With MyMarket, you gain access to advanced features like customizable charting, analyst ratings, fundamental data, and real-time market data, all in one easy-to-use mobile platform tailored to your needs.- Cost-effective Investing: Zero commissions on equities and ETFs, enabling you to invest cost-effectively and keep more of your hard-earned money working for you in the market.- Fundamental Data: Evaluate company financial health with key metrics and ratios, including income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, and more. - Customizable Charting: Visualize market trends and technical indicators with a range of charting options, including line charts, bar charts, and candlestick charts. - Options Trading: Access a wide range of options strategies for different skill levels, from basic long calls and puts to advanced strategies like vertical spreads and calendar/diagonal spreads, enabling you to manage risk, generate income, and potentially profit from various market conditions. - Earnings Calendar: Track upcoming earnings announcements and historical performance, allowing you to anticipate market reactions and make informed decisions. - Analyst Ratings: Access professional analyst opinions and recommendations, offering insights into the market's overall sentiment and outlook on specific stocks. By combining the powerful features of MyMarket with your own analysis and research, you can create a data-driven investment strategy that minimizes risk and optimizes your portfolio for long-term growth. The platform's tools empower you to:- Analyze companies' financial health and performance- Identify industry trends and potential opportunities- Gauge market sentiment through analyst ratings and technical indicators- Make informed decisions based on real-time market dataMyMarket is a comprehensive solution for hands-on investors seeking autonomy and control over their investment journey. By offering easy access to fundamental data, customizable charting tools, analyst ratings, and real-time market data, BBAE MyMarket enables you to make data-driven investment decisions with confidence, staying true to our BBAE ethos: "Investing reimagined, guidance and control, tailored to you."Next week, we'll explore BBAE Discover, where we provide investors with a curated collection of investment themes, market sectors, and the portfolios of well-known investors.Don't forget to download the BBAE mobile app today with a special sign-up bonus, and stay tuned for more BBAE Blueprint episodes. Happy investing!Barry
Read More >BBAE Blueprint #2
In our first BBAE Blueprint post, we introduced our vision for empowering investors through cutting-edge tools and education. At BBAE, we understand that investors value both autonomy and guidance over their financial lives. While more choice seems appealing, decades of research show that DIY autonomy alone does not always translate to optimal investment outcomes. Left unguided, cognitive biases and emotional impulses often lead investors astray. To address this reality, BBAE offers tailored products across the spectrum of investor control and involvement. Whether you prefer to take the wheel, engage cruise control, or sit back while we handle the driving, BBAE powers your journey to financial freedom. For hands-on investors inclined to take the wheel themselves, MyMarket emphasizes personal control and autonomy. We provide advanced tools like customizable charting, analyst ratings, fundamental data and real-time market data to keep you fully in control of your portfolio. For those who want to choose their own adventure. For investors seeking guidance to navigate new opportunities, Discover offers a curated selection of investment themes, sectors and expert portfolios to explore, empowering you to make well-informed trading decisions aligned with your interests. Find out for yourself what the pros like Stan Druckenmiller are holding or discover the leading semiconductor stocks and how they have been performing. For those open to choosing an adventure guided by insights from experts. For hands-free investors preferring professional assistance, MyAdvisor provides fully managed portfolios, granting you access to expertise and portfolio management from experienced financial advisors. Your adventure awaits; simply set your destination, sit back and enjoy the journey with the pros behind the wheel. At BBAE, we recognize that financial freedom comes from finding the right balance of control and support for you. While some investors thrive on autonomy, others prefer guidance to avoid misaligned choices or the paralyzing effect of too many options. BBAE's solution spectrum helps you invest your own way, powered by tools, insights or management that match your priorities. to start investing with confidence, knowing whatever adventure you choose, BBAE paves the road ahead. We provide the experience so you can live life fully invested however you determine, at each stage along the way. Your investment adventure awaits.Happy Investing! Barry
Read More >Berkshire Hathaway Still Good After Buffett and Munger? (Forbes column)
Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger built Berkshire Hathaway (and its 3,800,000% returns). After succession, what happens? Are shares The biggest question for anyone investing in any stock is: Will it beat the market? (Technically, it’s: Will it beat the market on a risk-adjusted basis? A boring utility stock might deliver a bit less return than the market for a lot less risk, and that’s just fine.)For Berkshire Hathaway – which has delivered returns of roughly 3,800,000% for investors since 1965, that’s still the surface question., the real question for Berkshire is what happens after Buffett (92) and Munger (99) leave the stage, God bless them.Whitney Tilson feels the shares areThe most direct way to think about Berkshire’s succession is to say: Buffett is the world’s greatest capital allocator (or the Buffett + Munger duo), so with him gone, or with them gone, Berkshire will go downhill. Furthermore, Buffett has a gravitational pull that nobody else has. Employees work for Berkshire for below-market pay, entrepreneurs sell to Berkshire for below-market multiples, and subsidiary company CEOs work past retirement age, perhaps for the satisfaction of being part of the most respected conglomerate that’s ever existed.In other words, the same pull that brings 40,000 people to a corporate annual meeting brings all sorts of deals and economic benefits, too. (And stuffed dolls.) Therefore, without it, Berkshire will suffer.The other way to look at it is that Berkshire has matched the market for the past 15 years. It’s grown so big that moving its needle is difficult. At least in its public market portfolio, the effect Warren and Charlie have is not as big as one might think. In fact, in some ways they’re a drag on returns, because they tend to avoid technology companies. Yes, Berkshire owns Apple (which has made more money for Berkshire than any other investments) but that was chosen (in 2016) by Ted Weschler and Todd Combs, Berkshire’s up-and-coming co-CIOs. In other words, Berkshire without Buffett and Munger won’t be so bad because they’re past their primes and the business has grown too large to benefit from investing genius anyway. You could also merge these perspectives and predict that Berkshire’s public equity results may be relatively unaffected, whereas its private market investing may lose a bit more without the Buffett halo. I tend to think they’ve built quite a flywheel by attracting like-minded people to a cause, versus just a stock. I’m sure it’s happened, but I don’t know of anyone who buys Berkshire Hathaway as a short-term investment. Many people hold it for decades – or at least have held it for decades. If I had to guess, I’d guess they still will. Jamesp.s. The best place to hold your Berkshire Hathaway stock for decades is – you guessed it! – in a BBAE account. If you still haven’t opened one, you can do so right here, !
Read More >Disinformation: Greatest Threat to Mankind?
Disinformation is the greatest threat to humanity, says Cambridge University Professor Alan Jagolinzer. Hear its risks to financial markets, too.“The greatest threat to mankind” sounds bad. In fact, it sounds about as ominous as it gets. But that’s how my friend Professor Alan Jagolinzer, who heads the accounting faculty at Cambridge University, describes the disinformation.(Click the image below – – to watch our video.)It sounds like a stretch, but maybe it isn’t – or won’t be soon. Think about it: In the old days, you had to stand up to change the TV channel (and many of us grew up with black-and-white TVs and rabbit-ear antennas), and there were only a handful of them. Or maybe you read the newspaper. Or a magazine. News was centralized. Social media, where everybody can be a publisher, democratized publishing. It sounds great, and has been great in many cases. But after seeing the overall result, I’m not sure that we want everyone to be a publisher; there’s benefit to having editors and an editorial board charged with maintaining a media company’s brand credibility, something a fly-by-night blowhard just gunning to inflame his “tribe” is less concerned with. Anyway, these days, we can live in an information bubble of our own making – making us more vulnerable to disinformation (and its slightly less malignant cousin, misinformation, which is the accidental spreading of falsehoods). Bots can “like” posts, articles, and videos, and make comments, providing false social proof. And AI makes outright impersonation cheaper and easier by the year. Disinformation affects nations, individuals, and financial markets. A fake tweet about free insulin cost Eli Lilly billions of dollars in market cap last year. That was temporary, but in theory, bad actors could deliberately disinform markets to create buying or selling opportunities. Likewise, companies themselves need to make business decisions almost constantly, relying on accurate information about everything from weather patterns to supply chains to geopolitical relations. False information made out to appear believable is nothing new – as I mention in the video, the Bible mentions “false witness” 81 times. But technology enables it to be taken to a whole new level. Is the world ready? My chat with Alan is broader in focus and longer than my usual fare. Avoid it if you’re looking for direct investment content. But the topic – and by the way, Alan is hosting the Cambridge Disinformation Summit on July 27th and 28th if you’re interested () – is thought-provoking.With Russian propaganda right next door, Finland is already teaching young children how to read media with an eye for disinformation. It won’t be the last country. I don’t know how, but I do believe that disinformation is changing – and will further change – the world. Especially for investors.Jamesp.s. Yes, disinformation is scary, right? Thank goodness you’re an investor in the US capital markets, which are the world’s most robust and generally held to be the most trusted. That’s why, when we’ve seen a global “flight to safety,” it’s almost invariably to US assets. I’m not a genie and I’m not making predictions, but it’s possible that US stocks will fare better than others as information warfare heats up. If you’re looking for an account – or looking for a new one – or looking for one with a cooler brokerage – .
Read More >What Mattered at Berkshire Hathaway’s 2023 Annual Meeting
Berkshire Hathaway's stock has delivered a nearly 3,800,000% return since inception, compared to around 25,000% for the S&P If you’d been lucky – or prescient – enough to invest in Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway back in 1965, you’d have earned a return of nearly 3,800,000% – a lot more than the S&P 500’s return of a bit under 25,000%.Check out the video recap BBAE analyst Shaoping Huang and I made outside our fancy dinner event in Omaha by clicking the photo below ():Buffett’s contribution to his shareholders may be monetary, but his contributions to the investment community and the world writ large include inspiring generations of investors to seek out good companies and avoid bad ones (a seemingly obvious practice that helps an economy, in contrast to other forms of investing like quantitative or macroeconomic), as well as doling out wisdom alongside sidekick and fellow billionaire Charlie Munger at the annual meetings the two have held sinceAs a shareholder and frequent attendee of these meetings, I saw and heard some things that I expected, and some that I didn’t. Berkshire is an investment company, and unrealized gains and losses have an outsized effect on the company’s official GAAP earnings, which were up roughly 6x from the year-ago quarter. That improvement was driven by investment gains, primarily, but those come and go. The operating earnings were up – formerly the Government Employees Insurance Company – Underwriting gains – underwriting refers to an insurer’s policy revenue and policy payouts – and investment income both contributed similar amounts of profit, even as GEICO lags behind companies like Progressive in telematics, the customized pricing an insurer delivers after monitoring a customer’s behavior, such as via mobile phone data. Berkshire Hathaway Energy saw much lower profits, and BNSF railroad saw slightly lower profits. -Warren Buffett They always are, and they’ve always been right – at least in a long-term sense, which is the only time period they care about. “I’d love to be born today (in the US)” Buffett said, after noting: “The world is overwhelmingly short-term focused.” “I see no option for any other currency to be the reserve currency,” Buffett said, noting that suggestions that bitcoin could play this role were “a joke.” This may sound like an attempt to boost investor confidence in the company after they’re gone (Buffett is 92 and Munger is 99), but they’ve always done this. -Charlie Munger If actions speak louder than words, Buffett’s and Munger’s decision to sell $ Even prior to the annual meeting, Charlie Munger had expressed that “the golden age of investing is over” and during the meeting, said that value investors should “get used to making less.” “Charlie has been telling me the same thing the whole time we’ve known each other,” he retorted. This part isn’t surprising; Charlie Munger in particular has been a strong advocate of investing in China. Yet when asked why, Buffett was uncharacteristically vague, saying he’d “reconsidered” and offering that he’d prefer a similar company in Japan or the US. Buffett and Munger were both very optimistic about Japan, where they’ve recently added to positions in five conglomerates. Both feel the world has far too many investment managers (they’re right!) but while their answers didn’t show a deep understanding of AI – and I’m sure they’d both admit they know little about it – I personally agree with this. And this is likely why we haven’t seen Berkshire Hathaway jumping in to buy regional US banks after the recent issues, even though US regulators have almost certainly asked Berkshire if it would be interested in doing so, as it did following the financial crisis of Buffett said he believes that the period of “extraordinary spending” following all the COVID-era economic stimulus is over. I think this was the single biggest question on everyone’s mind.The shareholder meeting traditionally starts with a funny movie. This year’s movie began with year-by-year video clips – starting in 1994 – of various shareholders earnestly asking what will happen to Berkshire after Warren and Charlie die. Everyone laughed to see these concerns raised nearly 30 years ago.Of course, now that they’re 92 and 99, this reality grows more real by the year.One worry is that once Buffett dies, his A-class shares, which have 10,000 times more voting power than the more common B-class shares do, will be converted into B-shares and gradually given to charity, leaving the company vulnerable to corporate raiders., the world’s foremost expert on Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway, outside of Omaha’s CHI Health Center (where the meeting was held) about the risk of a corporate raider being able – after Buffett dies – to buy up shares and split the company apart. Whitney isn’t worried; he thinks the odds would only rise from 0% to 1%.The real question – which both Whitney and I agreed on – is how much “magic” will be left in Berkshire Hathaway after Warren and Charlie are gone. Because it’s well-known that Berkshire only buys the very best businesses, entrepreneurs consider selling to Buffett to be an honor, and will often accept a lower price than they otherwise would, in consideration of the intangible benefits a Berkshire deal brings them. Likewise, as Whitney added, many current managers are elderly but choose to remain working because of these intangible benefits. Successors Greg Abel (CEO), Ajit Jain (insurance head), Todd Combs and Ted Weschler (publicly traded investment heads) are all capable. But how much of Warren and Charlie’s magic they’ll be able to keep is the real question for Berkshire Hathaway – and for its investors. It’s not a long video, or a deep one, but if you’re curious about Warren Buffett’s house, here’s a video I made in front of it (). p.s. As Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger would almost certainly say, the best time to start investing was years ago, and the second-best time to start is now. BBAE makes getting started easy as 1-2-
Read More >Vitaliy Katsenelson: From Russia With Love
Prominent value investor Vitaliy Katsenelson on finding alpha in the stock market, FDIC insurance for all deposits, and how to get kids investing. By James Early, BBAE CIO. Vitaliy Katsenelson is a great guy – who holds a great Berkshire Hathaway breakfast, writes great books (and emails) and gives great advice. I’m going off topic immediately, but one of the many reasons I respect Vitaliy so much is that he came to the US from Russia as a teen with relatively little, and built his own American Dream. Vitaliy, a libertarian, is more “American” than most native-born Americans I know in the sense of appreciating freedom and capitalism (and supporting Ukraine).I grabbed a hoodie-clad Vitaliy after a jam-packed readers’ breakfast (with many more people than you can see in the photo, and Vitaliy generously picked up the tab) to ask about getting my son into investing, where to find alpha in today’s market with so much competition and investment technology (like AI), whether it’s better for the FDIC to insure all bank deposits, or for the Federal Reserve to take deposits directly, and more. Please click below to watch our video!Vitaliy Katsenelson on Banks, Starting to Invest and Finding AlphaJames p.s. You can find Vitaliy at www.contrarianedge.com as well as www.imausa.com. And don’t forget to subscribe to this blog – hopefully, it’s helpful, and if not let me know how I can make it better! – and if you don’t already have a very wonderful BBAE account, please check out how .
Read More >Whitney Tilson: King of All Things Buffett and Berkshire (and Munger)
Whitney Tilson is the world’s top Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger and Berkshire Hathaway expert. His thoughts on Berkshire valuation and succession.By James Early, BBAE CIO Nobody knows Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett (and Charlie Munger) better than Whitney Tilson. !Whitney Tilson IS the World's
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