2025 Anti-Prediction, Argentina’s Economic Shift, $NBN Investment Case, Small-Cap Optimism, and More
Happy New Year from the BBAE Team!! This week on the BBAE Blog we are excited to share some highlights that will keep you informed and ahead of the market. Don’t forget, some of our most valuable insights are available exclusively in the BBAE Pro app—download it now to unlock full access!
- Our 2025 Stock Market Anti-Prediction
- Javier Milei is Succeeding in Argentia. Will Trump and Musk Follow in the US?
- Bonhoeffer Fund: Northeast Bank ($NBN) Investment Case
- News Roundup: 2024 Investing Learnings, Many Stocks Not Expensive, Small-caps to Power Back?
Need a reminder of why BBAE? We have one goal: to provide you with exclusive content and data to help you make informed investing decisions. Explore a wealth of market insights and potential investing opportunities that you can’t find anywhere else.
Our 2025 Stock Market Anti-Prediction
James Early, CIO at BBAE, critiques the annual tradition of market forecasting. He argues that these predictions, which frequently fail, are less about accuracy and more about satisfying our craving for certainty about the future. Citing historical inaccuracies and the likes of Warren Buffett, James suggests that the true value of these forecasts lies in their psychological comfort rather than their financial insight. He underscores the inherently unpredictable nature of financial markets, proposing that the ongoing reliance on forecasts is driven more by human psychology than by their empirical utility. Read the full article here.
Javier Milei is Succeeding in Argentia. Will Trump and Musk Follow in the US?
James discusses Argentina’s economic turnaround under Javier Milei’s leadership, highlighting the country’s shift from 300% inflation and bloated government employment to reported improvements including a 153% stock market increase and 2.4% inflation rate. He speculates on whether Milei’s libertarian economic approach could influence U.S. politics, particularly through figures like Trump and Musk, with the latter allegedly drawing inspiration from Argentina’s cost-cutting measures for DOGE. Read the full article here.
Bonhoeffer Fund: Northeast Bank ($NBN) Investment Case
Bonhoeffer Fund’s Q3 2024 analysis highlights Northeast Bank ($NBN) as a compelling investment, underscoring its specialization in orphan and SBA loans. With an impressive historical EPS growth rate of nearly 40% annually and currently trading at about 10x earnings, the bank is noted for its strategic acquisitions and niche lending services. The fund underscores Northeast Bank’s significant undervaluation relative to its growth potential, positioning it as a robust addition to its growth-oriented investment portfolio. Read the full article here.
News Roundup: 2024 Investing Learnings, Many Stocks Not Expensive, Small-caps to Power Back?
This week’s news roundup covers several key topics:
- 2024 Investing Lessons: Key takeaways from Charlie Bilello’s analysis of 2024 include the surprising resilience of the inverted yield curve as a stock market indicator, the Fed’s asset reduction not impacting prices as expected, and the limited correlation between Fed Funds rates and broader interest rates. These lessons challenge long-held economic assumptions.
- Stock Valuations: While the aggregate U.S. market appears expensive, with a Shiller P/E ratio well above historical averages, nearly 45% of S&P 500 stocks are trading below their historical valuations. This suggests that high valuations are concentrated in a few large-cap stocks, leaving opportunities in other areas.
- Small-Cap Optimism: Small businesses and investors are optimistic following Trump’s win, anticipating policies favoring domestic growth. This sentiment could extend to small-cap stocks, which might outperform large caps in the coming years if the U.S. dollar weakens.
Read the full roundup post here.
Wishing you a Happy New Year~
Barry Freeman
CEO @ BBAE
This article is for informational purposes only and is neither investment advice nor a solicitation to buy or sell securities. All investment involves inherent risks, including the total loss of principal, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Always conduct thorough research or consult with a financial expert before making any investment decisions. Neither the author nor BBAE has a position in any investment mentioned.
