Intel’s Roller-Coaster: From Falling Behind to a Potential Comeback
Intel Corp ($INTC), long the undisputed titan of computer chips—has endured a turbulent few years. After decades of technological leadership, the company lost ground in the early 2020s to rivals Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD) and Nvidia ($NVDA). Intel’s stock and market position suffered as competitors surged ahead in PCs, servers and the fast-growing artificial-intelligence (AI) accelerator market.
Today, signs of a turnaround are emerging. Leadership changes, massive investments in new chip-making capacity, and support from both the U.S. government and industry partners have renewed investor optimism. Here’s how Intel fell behind—and the steps fueling its tentative comeback.
Losing the Lead (2020–2022)
By 2020, cracks had begun to show in Intel’s dominance. Manufacturing delays and missed shifts—such as the mobile-processor boom and advanced GPUs—left the company “in a slump,” as one report put it. AMD gained traction with high-performance PC and server chips, while Nvidia’s GPUs became indispensable for AI and data centers. Nvidia’s success in AI chips even helped it surpass Intel in market value by 2020, a symbolic passing of the Silicon Valley torch.
Intel’s revenue peaked that year at $77.9 billion before starting to slide as AMD and Nvidia chipped away at market share. The trend accelerated through 2021 and 2022: AMD’s Ryzen and EPYC processors undercut Intel in both PCs and servers, and Nvidia’s dominance in AI accelerators went unchallenged. By 2022, Intel’s market capitalization had fallen below AMD’s—an almost unthinkable reversal just a few years earlier. Investor confidence waned and the stock reflected the setback.
A New CEO and a Bold Plan
Intel’s board responded with a leadership shake-up. In February 2021, veteran engineer Pat Gelsinger returned as CEO, charged with reigniting innovation. Investors, weary after years of delays, welcomed the move. Gelsinger vowed to “make an epic comeback,” launching a strategy he called “IDM 2.0.”
His plan was ambitious: deliver “five nodes in four years,” rapidly catching up in process technology. Intel committed to heavy capital spending, including a $20 billion investment for two new Arizona fabrication plants announced in 2021.
Gelsinger also repositioned Intel as a foundry—manufacturing chips for other companies, much like industry leader TSMC. By mid-2023 he rebranded the foundry division as an “AI-era system foundry,” underscoring Intel’s aim to produce chips for the booming AI market. Microsoft soon became the first major customer for an advanced Intel process, a key proof point for the strategy.
Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Vision (2021–2023)
While Gelsinger’s roadmap gave Intel a clear direction, the near-term results were painful. Execution missteps and fierce competition continued to hurt PC and server CPU sales, and Intel lacked a strong presence in the lucrative AI-accelerator space dominated by Nvidia.
The market punished the stock. After trading near multi-year highs in early 2021, Intel shares plunged more than 60% between April 2021 and October 2022—from about $68 to roughly $25—while the S&P 500 fell only around 25% in the same period. A late-2023 rebound to about $50 recouped part of the loss, but the stock remained well below its 2021 peak. For retail investors who once viewed Intel as a stable blue chip, the volatility was a wake-up call.
By late 2022, falling sales and rising costs forced Intel to confront hard realities. The company embarked on aggressive cost-cutting, and in 2023 it slashed its dividend—a painful step for income-focused shareholders—while announcing more than 17,000 layoffs to trim a bloated workforce.
The struggle raised questions about Intel’s future. Reuters reported that by 2024, Qualcomm explored acquiring parts of Intel’s chip-design business, and Intel itself weighed whether to spin off its manufacturing unit. These rumors underscored how far the onetime industry leader had fallen; some market watchers even began to see it as a potential breakup candidate.
Despite the headwinds, CEO Pat Gelsinger pressed ahead. Intel rolled out new products—such as the 12th-Gen “Alder Lake” PC chips in late 2021 and next-generation server processors through 2022–23—and poured resources into manufacturing R&D, including next-gen EUV lithography, RibbonFET transistors, and 3D packaging. Yet by the end of 2023, a clear financial turnaround remained elusive, testing the patience of investors and employees alike.
Signs of Recovery (2024–2025)
By early 2024, CEO Pat Gelsinger said Intel’s comeback plan was “on track,” claiming its newest manufacturing process was finally matching the efficiency and capability of industry leader TSMC. Microsoft’s foundry deal validated that progress, and breakthroughs such as the upcoming 18A process—featuring RibbonFET and backside-power innovations—suggested Intel might soon leapfrog rivals in chip density and performance.
Yet leadership continued to evolve. After Gelsinger resigned later in 2024, Intel was briefly led by interim co-CEOs David Zinsner (also CFO) and Michelle “MJ” Johnston Holthaus (CEO of Intel Products). On March 12, 2025, the board named Lip-Bu Tan as permanent chief executive, effective March 18. Tan, a veteran semiconductor executive best known for transforming Cadence Design Systems, was praised by Intel board chair Frank D. Yeary as “exactly what Intel needs in its next CEO.” Zinsner returned to his CFO role and Johnston Holthaus continued to head Intel Products, while Yeary resumed his position as independent board chair. Tan pledged to keep customers “at the heart of everything we do” and to execute the turnaround with greater discipline.
At the same time, Intel secured extraordinary outside support. Under President Trump, the U.S. government purchased a 10% equity stake in March 2025 at about $20.47 per share, injecting roughly $5.7 billion in fresh capital. The White House framed the move as vital to national security, ensuring advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity remained on U.S. soil. For investors, it meant share dilution but also a powerful signal that Washington viewed Intel as too strategic to fail.
Just weeks later came an even more surprising endorsement from a onetime rival. On September 18, 2025, NVIDIA and Intel unveiled a historic collaboration to co-develop multiple generations of custom products for both AI data-center infrastructure and personal computing. Intel will design and manufacture custom x86 CPUs with NVIDIA NVLinkfor NVIDIA’s AI platforms and will build x86 system-on-chips integrating NVIDIA RTX GPU chiplets for high-performance PCs. As part of the agreement, NVIDIA will invest $5 billion in Intel common stock at $23.28 per share, pending regulatory approvals.
NVIDIA founder and CEO Jensen Huang called the deal “historic,” saying it would “lay the foundation for the next era of computing.” Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan noted that combining Intel’s data-center and client-computing platforms with its manufacturing and advanced packaging capabilities would complement NVIDIA’s AI leadership and “enable new breakthroughs for the industry.”
For retail investors, these developments underscore how far Intel has come from its early-2020s slump. Government backing, a new CEO with a proven record, and a deep strategic alliance with NVIDIA now give Intel the financial resources, leadership stability, and technological partnerships to turn its ambitious comeback from aspiration into reality.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. The content is based on publicly available information and reflects the author’s opinions as of the publication date, which may change without notice. All investments carry inherent risks, including the potential loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. BBAE holds no position in the securities mentioned, nor are they compensated by the companies mentioned.
