Stock Market Nerd – Earnings Roundup – Block (SQ); Coinbase (COIN); BIll.com (BILL); Super Micro (SMCI); AMD (AMD); Pinterest (PINS) – May 4, 2024
In typical earnings seasons, Block and AMD would’ve been full reviews. This earnings season has been a bit more concentrated than they usually are. With 14 companies in the coverage network reporting this week (7 on Thursday), I simply did not have enough hours in the day. I plan to put together reviews for both after peak earnings (likely mid-may). I also plan to dig into that Starbucks (SBUX) quarter to figure out what the heck happened there. Cutting EPS growth guidance from 18% to 3% is ugly to say the least for the coffee giant.
Block (SQ)
Results:
- Beat revenue estimates by 2.4%.
- Beat EBITDA estimates by 19.9% & beat guidance by 21.6%.
- Crushed GAAP EBIT estimates.
- Beat $0.73 EPS estimates by $0.12.
GPV = Gross Payment Volume
Source: Brad Freeman – SEC Filings, Company Presentations, and Company Press Releases
Guidance & Valuation:
- Raised gross profit guide by 1.5%.
- Raised EBITDA guide by 4.9%.
Block trades for 20x EPS and 45x GAAP EBIT. EPS is expected to grow by 81% Y/Y and GAAP EBIT will inflect.
Balance Sheet:
- $6.2B in cash & equivalents.
- $4.1B in debt.
- Diluted shares +2.2% Y/Y.
Coinbase (COIN)
Results:
- Beat revenue estimate by 22%.
- Doubled GAAP EBIT estimate.
- Crushed $1 GAAP EPS estimate by $3.40. Coinbase enjoyed a $737 million mark to market gain from its crypto assets. Without this help, it would have beaten by $1.65.
Source: Brad Freeman – SEC Filings, Company Presentations, and Company Press Releases
Balance Sheet:
- $6.7B in cash.
- $4.2B in debt.
- Diluted shares +16% Y/Y. This has been a consistently poor trend for Coinbase.
Bill.com (BILL)
Results:
- Beat revenue estimate by 5.6% & beat guide by 6.3%.
- Beat EBIT estimate by 48%.
- Beat $0.53 EPS estimate & beat same guide by $0.07.
Source: Brad Freeman – SEC Filings, Company Presentations, and Company Press Releases
Q4 2024 Guidance & Valuation:
- Revenue beat by 0.6%.
- EBIT beat by 9.0%.
- EPS missed by $0.09.
Bill trades for 27x EPS and 26x FCF. It is now expected to turn GAAP EPS positive for three more years. EPS is expected to grow by 34% Y/Y with FCF expected to grow by 24% Y/Y.
Balance Sheet:
- $1.8B in cash & equivalents.
- $966M in notes.
- Basic shares -1.1% Y/Y; diluted shares +4.3% Y/Y.
Super Micro (SMCI)
A bit of context is needed here. SMCI has trained analysts to expect historically massive beats and raises throughout the last year. That leaves the bar for outperformance ridiculously high. This setup was the polar opposite of Tesla’s. It beat & raised by a still solid amount… it was just a more normal amount.
Results:
- Missed estimate & missed same guide by 1.3%.
- Beat $5.57 EPS estimate by $0.88 & Beat guide by $0.85.
- Beat 15.3% GPM estimate by 30 bps.
Source: Brad Freeman – SEC Filings, Company Presentations, and Company Press Releases
Annual Guidance & Valuation:
- Raised revenue guide by 2.7%, which beat estimate by 2.1%.
- $22 GAAP EPS guidance beat by $2.37.
- $23.70 EPS guide beat by $1.85.
SMCI trades for 24x 2024 earnings. Earnings are set to double this year. The firm operates in a cyclical industry. This is the fun part of the cycle. It all comes down to how long this fun part lasts.
Balance Sheet:
- $2.12B in cash & equivalents.
- $1.86B in debt & notes.
- Diluted shares +9% Y/Y (there was an offering).
AMD (AMD)
Results:
- Beat revenue estimate by 0.4% & beat guide by 1.3%.
- Beat 52% GPM estimate & beat same guide by 30 bps.
- Met EBIT estimate.
- Met EPS estimate.
Source: Brad Freeman – SEC Filings, Company Presentations, and Company Press Releases
Next Quarter Guidance & Valuation:
Guidance was exactly in line across the board.
AMD trades for 36x 2024 earnings with earnings expected to grow by 33% Y/Y to reach 2022 levels.
Balance Sheet:
- $6B in cash & equivalents; inventory down slightly Y/Y.
- $2.5B in total debt.
- Share count rose slightly Y/Y.
Pinterest (PINS)
Results:
- Beat revenue estimate by 5.7% & beat guide by 6.0%.
- Beat -$86M GAAP EBIT estimate by $32M.
- Beat EBITDA estimate by 54%; beat $0.13 EPS estimate by $0.07.
ARPU = Average Revenue Per User; MAU = Monthly Active User
Guidance & Valuation:
- Revenue guidance is 1.8% ahead.
Balance Sheet:
- $2.7B in cash & equivalents.
- No debt.
- Shares fell slightly Y/Y.
