Stock Market Nerd – Earnings Round-Up – Robinhood (HOOD), Celsius (CELH), Axon (AXON) Confluent (CFLT) – May 11, 2024
Robinhood (HOOD)
Results:
- Beat revenue estimate by 11.4%. Average revenue per user (ARPU) was $104 vs. $81 Q/Q.
- $23.9 billion in trailing 12 month (TTM) deposits vs. $17.3 billion Q/Q and $16.1 billion 2 quarters ago.
- Beat EBITDA estimate by 40%.
- Tripled $0.06 GAAP EPS estimate.
Source: Brad Freeman – SEC Filings, Company Presentations, and Company Press Releases
Balance Sheet:
- $4.7B in cash & equivalents.
- Share count fell slightly Y/Y.
Guidance & Valuation:
Robinhood reiterated annual expense guidance for the year. It does not offer additional guidance.
Robinhood trades for 19x 2024 earnings. Earnings are expected to grow by 82% Y/Y in 2024, but then fall 9% Y/Y in 2025. This is a cyclical business model, although it is rounding out the product suite as we speak to help buffer the cyclicality.
Celsius (CELH)
Results:
- Missed revenue estimate by 8.8%. This was due to a reset in held inventory levels at Pepsi. Its 92.3% 3-yr revenue CAGR compares to 113% last quarter & 119% 2 quarters ago.
- Beat EBITDA estimates by 21%.
- Beat GAAP EBIT estimates by 23.7%.
- Beat $0.19 GAAP EPS estimates by $0.08.
Source: Brad Freeman – SEC Filings, Company Presentations, and Company Press Releases
Balance Sheet:
- $880M in cash & equivalents.
- $200M in inventory.
- $824M in convertible preferred shares.
- Stock comp dollars remain under 1% of revenue. Love this.
Guidance & Valuation:
Celsius doesn’t offer formal guidance.
Celsius trades for 75x GAAP EPS. It doesn’t make non-GAAP adjustments to EPS. EPS is expected to compound at a 33.5% clip for the next two years. It also trades for about 45x 2024 EBITDA. EBITDA is expected to compound at a 30.5% clip for the next two years.
Axon (AXON)
Results:
- Beat revenue estimates by 4.4%. Its 33.2% 3-year revenue CAGR compares to 25.6% last quarter & 35.6% 2 quarters ago.
- Beat EBITDA estimates by 20%.
- Beat $0.95 EPS estimates by $0.20.
- It crushed GAAP EPS estimates due to strategic equity investment gains.
Free cash flow (FCF) is lumpy on a quarterly basis.
Source: Brad Freeman – SEC Filings, Company Presentations, and Company Press Releases
Balance Sheet:
- $500M in $ & equivalents.
- No traditional debt.
- $677M in convertible senior notes.
- Share count +4.4% Y/Y.
Annual Guidance & Valuation:
- Raised annual revenue guide by 2.9%, which beat estimates by 1.8%.
- Raised annual EBITDA guide by 4.3%, which beat estimates by 2.3%.
- Raised CapEx guide from $68M to $88M to add more capacity.
Axon trades for 49x EBITDA and 68x 2024 EPS. EBITDA is expected to compound at a forward 2 year clip of 23%, while EPS is expected to compound at a forward 2 year clip of 22.6%.
Confluent (CFLT)
Results:
- Beat revenue estimate by 2.5% & beat guidance by 2.7%.
- Its 31.3% 2-year revenue CAGR compares to 33.3% last quarter & 39.7% 2 quarters ago.
- Subscription and cloud revenue were also ahead of expectations.
- Beat -$8.5M EBIT estimate & beat identical guidance by $5.2M.
- Beat $0.02 EPS estimates by $0.03 & beat guidance by $0.04.
Source: Brad Freeman – SEC Filings, Company Presentations, and Company Press Releases
Balance Sheet:
- $1.9B in cash & equivalents.
- $1.1B in notes.
- Share count rose 7.7% Y/Y (basic & diluted).
Guidance & Valuation:
- Raised annual revenue guide by 0.7%, which beat by a slight margin.
- Reiterated annual $0 EBIT guide, which missed by $2M.
- Raised annual $0.17 EPS guide by $0.025, which beat by $0.025.
- Q2 guidance was slightly ahead across the board.
Confluent is currently inflecting to positive EBITDA, EBIT, net income and free cash flow, while still a ways away from GAAP net income profitability. It trades for about 11x 2024 gross profit.
